Showing posts with label Paul Samuelson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Paul Samuelson. Show all posts

Thursday, November 4, 2021

Thoughts: 4 November 2021

 


It’s a grim reality today that many of humanity’s emerging global problems— like climate change and biodiversity loss— produce the conditions for market failure in stunning abundance.
In other words, markets aren't self-sustaining or perfect. If the conditions--cultural, social, political, or natural--aren't aligned & operative, markets will fail.


The best you can do, whether with a prince or a landscape or the past, is to represent reality: to smooth over the details, to look for larger patterns, to consider how you can use what you see for your own purposes.

“The best that we have from history,” Goethe says, “is the enthusiasm that it stimulates.”
Disagree, Goethe. Per Collingwood, the highest use of history is self-knowledge.

For Samuelson and his followers, physics was the foundation of knowledge, and mathematics was its language. Where The General Theory had proclaimed “uncertainty” to be the bedrock analytical concept for economic thinking, Samuelson and his protégés sought not only certainty but precision.
Excessive physics-envy is the bain of the social sciences.
Z
THE OUTRAGES OF financialisation provide a specific example of a more general tendency that’s always been problematic in our culture, but it’s now accelerating with frightening speed. Knowledge and information throughout our economy and society are being degraded on an immense scale.
From Australian economist Nicholas Gruen. This suggests that information & knowledge are forms of energy that suffer from entropy. They need constant inputs to remain valuable.

On October 27, within hours of Trump declaring that it would be “totally inappropriate” if ballots were still being tallied after election day, eight business organizations, led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable, took the unusual step of issuing a joint statement, rebutting the president and calling for “peaceful and fair elections,” the counting of which might, quite legitimately, extend over “days or even weeks.” Jamie Dimon, chairman and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, emailed the bank’s staff, stressing the “paramount” importance of respecting the democratic process. Two hundred and sixty leading executives signed a statement “warning that the health of the US economy depended on the strength of its democracy.”
I derive some hope that even Wall Street, with its infatuation with the bottom line, realizes that it, too, will lose of democracy & the rule of law go down the drain.

Once upon a time on the family farm, the feed was made on site (dried grass called hay), and cow manure was a combination fertilizer/pesticide—essentially a GHG break-even process. But now, with monoculture farming, the feed is on the factory farm in Iowa, and the manure is left on the concentrated animal feeding operation (CAFO) in Kansas (there’s triple the animal manure versus human feces produced each day in the US). Furthermore, on the CAFO, the manure isn’t repurposed as fertilizer. Instead it decomposes into methane and other pollutants—including nitrogen, phosphorus, antibiotics, and metals—which leech into groundwater when manure storage facilities inevitably leak.
We don't need to kill all the cattle; we need sustainable agriculture.

Self-organizing systems are intrinsically stable and resilient—but only up to a point. Chronic, low-grade stress sickens them, and once stressed beyond a certain threshold (sometimes called a tipping point), they can fall out of equilibrium and enter a regime of positive feedback in which a self-destructive process feeds on itself.
See my comment on the Homer-Dixon quote at the beginning.

A number of these themes come together in some remarks of Guicciardini, which explain why legal thinking is a natural matrix for a wide range of conceptual advances in applicable reasoning. “Common men find the variety of opinions that exists among lawyers quite reprehensible, without realizing that it proceeds not from any defects in the men but from the nature of the subject. General rules cannot possibly comprehend all particular cases. Often, specific cases cannot be decided on the basis of law, but must rather be dealt with by the opinions of men, which are not always in harmony. We see the same thing happen with doctors, philosophers, commercial arbitrators, and in the discourses of those who govern the state, among whom there is no less variety of judgement than among lawyers.”
Take it from a lawyer: so true.
If there is anything that could be called progress in the religious history of mankind, it resides in the gradual preference for the self over the other as the primary sacrificial victim. It is precisely in this that the Christian religion rests its moral claim.
I believe that Scruton is channeling Rene Girard here.

[Colin] Wilson felt something of the same [transported to a different time & place] while writing his book on Shaw. Writing of Shaw’s breakthrough after years of overwork as a music and theater critic, he [Wilson] had a “sudden feeling of intense joy,” as if his “heart had turned into a balloon” and was “sailing up into the air.” He had become aware, he said, of the “multiplicity of life.” He was back in Edwardian London, as the hero of The Philosopher’s Stone was back in Shakespeare’s day or Proust back in Combray. But he could just as easily be in “Goethe’s Weimar or Mozart’s Salzburg.” The experience, he points out, was not one of empathy; it was, as William James had said of his own mystical experience, perceptual. It was not merely a matter of feeling but of seeing, of perceiving a reality of which we are usually blind, or toward which we are usually indifferent. It was a moment of seeing from the bird’s-eye view rather than from our usual close-up perspective. Or, in other words, it was a moment of non-robotic consciousness.
Such moments are important because they renew us. They connect us to our source of power, meaning, and purpose, and fill us with new vitality. As Wilson came to see, the right brain is in charge of our power supply. It holds the purse strings on our strength.
Wilson knew that it was precisely such moments as these that the Romantics craved: the sense that distant realities are as real as the present moment—more real, in fact—and that life is infinitely interesting.
A sort of deja vu experience?

Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Politics & Hypocrisy

Politics demands a great capacity for self-deception, which rescues the politician from hypocrisy. He can normally manage to believe what he is saying for the time it takes to say it. This gives him a certain sincerity even when he is saying opposite things to opposite people. Since he loves to be pleased, he tries to please people back. He genuinely dislikes disagreements with anyone. It interrupts the reciprocal laving of egos; it puts grit in the butter bath.

Garry Wills, Confessions of a Conservative (1979), p. 178

But in reality the best one can ever do with hypocrisy is take a stand for or against one kind or another, not for or against hypocrisy itself. We might regret the prevalence of hypocrisy, but if we want to do anything about it we have to get beyond generalised regret, and try instead to identify the different ways in which hypocrisy can be a problem.


Runciman, David Political Hypocrisy (2018) Princeton University Press. Kindle Edition.

         . . . .  

Hypocrisy turns on questions of character rather than simply coincidence with the truth. Likewise, though hypocrisy will involve some element of inconsistency, it is not true that inconsistency is itself evidence of hypocrisy. People often do, and often should, change their minds about how to act, or vary their principles depending on the situation they find themselves in. It is not hypocrisy to seek special treatment for one’s own children—to arrive, say, in a crowded emergency room with an ailing child and demand immediate attention—though it may be unrealistic or even counter-productive to behave in this way; it is only hypocrisy if one has some prior commitment not to do so. It is the prior commitment not to be inconsistent, rather than the fact of inconsistency, that generates the conditions of hypocrisy. That, of course, is one reason why hypocrisy is such a problem for politicians. 

Id.  

. . . .

From one perspective the act of concealment makes things worse—it simply piles vice on top of vice, which is why hypocrites are often seen as wickeder than people who are simply, and openly, bad. But from another perspective the concealment turns out to be a form of amelioration—it is, in Rochefoucauld’s timeless phrase, “the tribute that vice pays to virtue.” Hypocrites who pretend to be better than they really are could also be said to be better than they might be, because they are at least pretending to be good. 

Id.

. . . . .

Once we acknowledge that some element of hypocrisy is inevitable in our political life, then it becomes self-defeating simply to try to guard against it. Instead, what we need to know is what sorts of hypocrites we want our politicians to be, and in what sorts of combinations. Do we want them to be hypocrites like us, so that they can understand us, or to be hypocrites of a different kind, so that they can manage our hypocrisy? Do we want them to be designing hypocrites, who at least know what they are doing, or do we want them to be more innocent than that? Do we want them to expose each other’s hypocrisy, or to ameliorate it? 

Id.

. . . .

Clearly, a line needs to be drawn somewhere between the hypocrisies that are unavoidable in contemporary political life, and the hypocrisies that are intolerable. But it is hard to see where.

Id.


Son, in politics you've got to learn that overnight chicken shit can turn to chicken salad.  

Lyndon B. Johnson (perhaps apocryphal)

I share all of the above quotes--and there must be thousands of more like them I could have cited--because I'm perplexed by the issue of hypocrisy and politics. Of course, on a basic level, the politician isn't always enamored of the colleague or voter or donator with whom she or he has to have a photo taken with, big beaming smile and all. They can't really think all of those babies are cute or all those chicken dinners really delicious. Of course not, and even those of us who aren't politicians engage in these venial hypocrisies on a regular basis. So, as David Runciman notes, it's not hypocrisy in general that we can rail against, it has to be certain type or level of hypocrisy--if this is the right word at all--that strongly disapprove of. 

And I have to admit that within certain limits or situations, I appreciate a degree of hypocrisy. Runciman cites the well-worn adage of Rouchcufould that hypocrisy is “the tribute that vice pays to virtue.” And I have to admit on the basis of this adage I've praised Richard Nixon as a better type of crook than Donald Trump because Nixon was at least a hypocrite. He at least tried to cover-up his wrong-doing, and his campaign theme and rhetoric (as opposed to his actions in office) were "bring us together" and other nobler sentiments. (N.B. Nixon was also a great deal smarter than Trump as a politician, as a statesman, and as the head of a government, although the bar of comparison has now been set ridiculously low by Trump.) Nixon was at least a hypocrite. One suspects, even with all of the spiders in his mind, that there was some sense of propriety, perhaps even shame, in Nixon, while Trump seems utterly without a sense of shame and immune to the opinion of others. Of course, these dynamics also play out in the actions of those around these two law-breaking, norm-destroying presidents. In 1974, Republican senators led by Senate Minority Leader Hugh Scott and former presidential nominee Barry Goldwater went to Nixon and told him that he should resign because he would be removed from office if impeached. (Nixon resigned before he was impeached, as he certainly would have been had he decided not to resign.) It's hard to imagine from those who recall that time, but the public debate and the conduct of politics for the most part were in a better state under the hypocrite (and crook) Nixon than they are under Donald Trump, with his blatant scorn for law, norms, and principles. Chalk one up for hypocrisy.

Also, as Runciman also states, "though hypocrisy will involve some element of inconsistency, it is not true that inconsistency is itself evidence of hypocrisy. People often do, and often should, change their minds about how to act, or vary their principles depending on the situation they find themselves in. "

I don't think that this point can receive enough emphasis. We can and should and do change our minds--and so should politicians. Emerson--"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds"--and economist Paul Samuelson--"Well when eve,nts change, I change my mind. What do you do?" (This quote is most often attributed to Keynes, but apparently this isn't correct.)  That politicians should and do change their minds makes them better, not worse, if they have sound grounds. That is, if they act on grounds other than deception and sheer expediency. However, the public is not quick to pick-up on such distinctions, and you will find politicians pilloried by a bamboozled electorate over changes of mind that were no more than parliamentary maneuvers. (Remember the ridicule aimed at John Kerry for his supposed "he was for it before he was against it" opinion about the Iraq War?) The public, if wise, would want elected leaders, especially legislators, who change positions as events--such as negotiations and novel incentives--change. But ask any experienced politician if she or he would want to try to finesse this point or educate the public about it, and I don't believe you'd find any takers. 

So now to the case in point, the most recent incident that has led to the concept and role of hypocrisy coming so loudly into my mind. I'm referring to the attitude of Republican senators on record stating that a Supreme Court vacancy shouldn't be filled in an election year. We have a large number of senators (all Republican) who've made statements to this effect. (The New York Times has conveniently cataloged their statements here.) And I've addressed this issue concerning my current Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO) and two senators from my native state of Iowa, Senators Charles Grassley and Joni Ernst. All of them have (as said of John Kerry) "flip-flopped" on this issue, to put in the kindest term possible. But because of the starkness of his statements, the brazenness of his reversal, and the convenience of Youtube, let's focus on Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC). Below are two clips of him, one from 2016 (during the refusal of the Republican Senate to consider the nomination Merrick Garland by President Obama) and the second came in 2018, during the Trump administration. 





(Staring at about the 21'30" mark for the second clip.)

Despite what he said in 2016 and in 2018, very soon after the death of Justice Ginsberg, Senator Graham announced that he would support Senate action on a replacement nomination by President Trump even though the nomination process is over and voting for president has begun in some jurisdictions. Graham stated: 

"After Kavanaugh, the rules have changed as far as I'm concerned," he told reporters, referring to the contentious confirmation for Justice Brett Kavanaugh. "We'll see what the market will bear if that ever happens."

Graham also said in a tweet on Saturday he "fully understands" Mr. Trump's desire to move quickly on filling the vacancy.

"I fully understand where President @realDonaldTrump is coming from," Graham wrote, referring to a tweet where Mr. Trump said Republicans had an "obligation" to fill the seat with "no delay."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lindsey-graham-indicates-he-supports-filling-ruth-bader-ginsburgs-seat-ahead-of-the-election/

N.B. The second Youtube clip posted above from The Atlantic Festival in 2018 occurred after the Kavanaugh nomination and hearings. In fact, if you, Kavanaugh hearing process was discussed at length in the immediately preceding portion of the conversation that I embedded above. 

So, is the change in position taken by Senator Graham (and representative of many of his Republican colleagues) hypocrisy or something else?  Does anyone contend that this is a fully justified, principled change in position? If it's hypocrisy, is it the venial kind or is it a more deadly sin?  If it's something more than hypocrisy, does it constitute a lie? Does it constitute an abuse of power? Or is it--or should it be--"just politics" where power (as control) is the entire game and the devil take the hindmost?  

I'm going to adjourn my essay at the enod of the paragraph and ask any reader who would kindly do so to weight in on this topic. I have a tolerant attitude toward most hypocrisy, including that of politicians. (My understanding and appreciation of American politics is greatly influenced by the brilliant early works of Garry Wills, political reporter-classicist par excellence, especially his Confessions of a Conservative (1979) quoted above and Nixon Agonistes: The Crisis of the Self-Made Man (1970). Wills's arguments about elections, bureaucrats, do-gooders, good-doers, and politicians appreciate the political process, including the sometimes maddening foibles of politicians.) Thus, I need to determine how to characterize the actions of the Republican senators. Should I have believed Senators Grassley and Graham and the others? (Their excuses, disclaimers, and "events changed" arguments have all come post facto.) Should I--should all of us--become more cynical? How big a sucker was I to expect some principled consistency (assuming, as I do, that the excuses offered by the Senators are not principled but mere rhetorical figleaves). Do these actions help or hurt the democratic process? To what extent do these actions by these senators represent a degneration of the quality of the democratic process (or not)? Let me know your thoughts. How do we explain, justify, or condemn these positions?