Wise or Crazy? Interesting Thoughts from Nassim Taleb

If nothing else--and I think he provides a lot of insight--NT gives us something to think about. In the brief written piece, he prognosticates, always a dangerous undertaking. Is he a hedgehog or fox (a la Phillip Tetlock)? In this taped interview also the The Economist, he talks about his new main idea: "anti-fragility". An interesting concept indeed.

More Stephen Walt on American Foreign Policy: Too Much Security or Too Much Insecurity

Stephen Walt furthers an argument that I posted about the other day. He responds to a very thoughtful comment in The Economist that addresses neocon ideas (or as the article puts it, "magical thinking")about national security. The Economist article is very thoughtful as well. Walt says that they both have a point: we are too secure, but not nearly as secure as we think we are. I'd say our weaknesses aren't military, they're perceptual and long-term. If you follow foreign policy, these posts are very pertinent to things like the START treaty and Afghanistan.