Thomas Homer-Dixon Update

Thomas Homer-Dixon sent out a recent email on updated activities, and a visit to his site led me to read this article about complexity. Complexity is one of the most compelling and productive theories that has recently arisen on my intellectual horizon. It applies to natural sciences and social sciences, which, I contend, shade into one another. Homer-Dixon also provides a succinct description of complexity theory and of "panarchy," taken from the work of his fellow Canadian, C.S. "Buzz" Holling.

This article deals with climate change, Homer-Dixon's current number one concern. Unlike the enigmatic  (late)  Seth Roberts (a UC Berkley/Quinghua) professor who takes appropriate skepticism to an extreme of denial, Homer-Dixon looks beyond theoretical skepticism to realities, such as the Arctic. Homer-Dixon argues we'd better sit up and pay attention. I really admire his work. Deep theoretical understanding combined with first-hand observations and engagement make his work the most compelling and important that I've read on the burning (literally) issue of climate change.

Edited & updated 12.03.20. sng

Thomas Homer-Dixon on Climate Change

Canadian political science Thomas Homer-Dixon wrote yesterday in the NYT about preparing for global climate change in his article "Disaster at the Top of the World". In his most recent two books, Homer-Dixon has ventured forth from the cloister of academia to travel to places where changes and challenges are occurring to report first-hand what he seeing happening  (without, I should note, diminishing the theoretical sophistication of his work). In this article, he's traveling in the Arctic and finding an open sea instead of the vast expanse of ice that used to be there not long ago. Homer-Dixon, like many others, seems to have arrived at the conclusion that we won't do anything about climate change until a very stark, undeniable catastrophe arises (Pakistani & Chinese floods, Russian forest fires, and the like just don't cut it in U.S. politics—ask the U.S. Senate). Homer-Dixon, therefore, argues that we'd better prepare ourselves to respond to catastrophes, such as insufficient water supplies in the American South. He argues that "protective cognition," manipulated by powerful economic interests invested in the status quo, has prevented us from acting so far. However, while I agree with Homer-Dixon that need such catastrophe planning, the same myopic outlook will probably prevent any action in preparation, just as our current myopia has discouraged us from directly addressing the causes of climate change.

One other comment on climate change: we're going to have to change a great deal as a society. I, for one, admit that I'm dependent on my car way too much of the time. However, until we offer alternatives, governed by market pricing, we won' see real change. We don't really pay for the energy we use: we off-load most of the cost into the environment and on to future generations, only "future generations" has come to mean now. Homer-Dixon has thought a great deal about all of this, and he deserves our careful consideration.

Edited & updated 12.03.20 sng