Friday, November 5, 2021

Thoughts: 5 November 2021

 


The upshot [of Say's Law]: Depressions are impossible. The very act of producing forecloses the possibility that a society will be unable to afford the fruits of production. The overall standard of living might be high or low, but it depends on how efficiently the society makes use of its resources. Unemployment cannot be a significant factor. 

But depressions are real, and Say’s Law is wrong. People don’t spend all of their incomes, and what they save is not automatically converted into other spending by anyone, now or later. In the classical worldview, banking was supposed to ensure that savings aligned with investment through the establishment of interest rates ensuring that the money people wanted to save would be profitably invested in new projects. [Keynes's] A Treatise on Money had tasked central banks with handling this duty. By cutting interest rates, central banks could make it more attractive for firms to borrow the money needed to expand production and discourage people from putting money in the bank, where it would earn a lousy return. Keynes argued that although this might work—he remained to the end of his days an advocate of low interest rates and cheap money—it very well might not.

Carter, Zachary D..The Price of Peace (pp. 261-262). Random House Publishing Group. Kindle Edition. 

Implicit here is the idea--or at least my idea--that depressions make no sense. They are creations of the system and not of Nature. In the Great Depression, the U.S. had not lost factories or suffered great crop failures, etc. It was a failure of the human-created system, not of some "law." My thought anyway, but I think Keynes was there way ahead of me. 


The North Vietnamese were not hooked on the idea of economic growth determination (which was one of the great hang-ups of Rostow), but were determined to extend their regime’s control to the entire country rather than maintain their industrialization. That was what motivated them, and that was what they considered their unfinished business. They had invested a great deal in it and they would continue to invest in it; no North Vietnamese government could afford to do less.
If you don't understand your adversary's incentives--or more fundamentally, your adversary's values--you don't understand your enemy & you'll surrender your ability to persuade, and even to coerce, your adversary.

Without Dynamic Quality the organism cannot grow. Without static quality the organism cannot last. Both are needed.
A polarity? A dialectic? Being & Becoming? Many possibilities but a basic insight with any label.

To be sure, we are still aware that thinking calls not only for intelligence and profundity but above all for courage.
We need more courage.

Modern Medicine and Big Pharma remain caught in a vicious cycle: doctors need Big Pharma because they’re taught to treat rather than cure or prevent; but the reason they don’t know any better is because medical education has been co-opted by Big Pharma itself. And so the cycle repeats.
How to break the cycle?

The [G. K.] Chestertons and [Patrick] Deneens of the world, insisting that liberalism destroys values, tend to overlook the overwhelming liberal assertion of the primary human value of pluralism because to them pluralism is simply not a value.

Another related speculation has even less evidence to support it but has a certain a priori likelihood. Nearly all writing about chance before modern times was in terms of fortune, fate, the goddess Fortuna, and the Wheel of Fortune.
And while numbers and quantification are useful, those metaphors and personifications are still of value. In a sense, we don't know (unknown unknowns) and can't know (known unknowns) some things.
When we survey the biological worlds, we find only two groups of organisms that practice large-scale warfare: human beings and ants.
Ants aren't that bright; what's our excuse?

The French Revolution, Tocqueville wrote, was like Islam in that it ‘flooded the earth with its soldiers, apostles and martyrs’.
In short, the modern ideology of the Revolution (and its successors) are function in some ways very much like a religion.


Thursday, November 4, 2021

Thoughts: 4 November 2021

 


It’s a grim reality today that many of humanity’s emerging global problems— like climate change and biodiversity loss— produce the conditions for market failure in stunning abundance.
In other words, markets aren't self-sustaining or perfect. If the conditions--cultural, social, political, or natural--aren't aligned & operative, markets will fail.


The best you can do, whether with a prince or a landscape or the past, is to represent reality: to smooth over the details, to look for larger patterns, to consider how you can use what you see for your own purposes.

“The best that we have from history,” Goethe says, “is the enthusiasm that it stimulates.”
Disagree, Goethe. Per Collingwood, the highest use of history is self-knowledge.

For Samuelson and his followers, physics was the foundation of knowledge, and mathematics was its language. Where The General Theory had proclaimed “uncertainty” to be the bedrock analytical concept for economic thinking, Samuelson and his protégés sought not only certainty but precision.
Excessive physics-envy is the bain of the social sciences.
Z
THE OUTRAGES OF financialisation provide a specific example of a more general tendency that’s always been problematic in our culture, but it’s now accelerating with frightening speed. Knowledge and information throughout our economy and society are being degraded on an immense scale.
From Australian economist Nicholas Gruen. This suggests that information & knowledge are forms of energy that suffer from entropy. They need constant inputs to remain valuable.

On October 27, within hours of Trump declaring that it would be “totally inappropriate” if ballots were still being tallied after election day, eight business organizations, led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable, took the unusual step of issuing a joint statement, rebutting the president and calling for “peaceful and fair elections,” the counting of which might, quite legitimately, extend over “days or even weeks.” Jamie Dimon, chairman and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, emailed the bank’s staff, stressing the “paramount” importance of respecting the democratic process. Two hundred and sixty leading executives signed a statement “warning that the health of the US economy depended on the strength of its democracy.”
I derive some hope that even Wall Street, with its infatuation with the bottom line, realizes that it, too, will lose of democracy & the rule of law go down the drain.

Once upon a time on the family farm, the feed was made on site (dried grass called hay), and cow manure was a combination fertilizer/pesticide—essentially a GHG break-even process. But now, with monoculture farming, the feed is on the factory farm in Iowa, and the manure is left on the concentrated animal feeding operation (CAFO) in Kansas (there’s triple the animal manure versus human feces produced each day in the US). Furthermore, on the CAFO, the manure isn’t repurposed as fertilizer. Instead it decomposes into methane and other pollutants—including nitrogen, phosphorus, antibiotics, and metals—which leech into groundwater when manure storage facilities inevitably leak.
We don't need to kill all the cattle; we need sustainable agriculture.

Self-organizing systems are intrinsically stable and resilient—but only up to a point. Chronic, low-grade stress sickens them, and once stressed beyond a certain threshold (sometimes called a tipping point), they can fall out of equilibrium and enter a regime of positive feedback in which a self-destructive process feeds on itself.
See my comment on the Homer-Dixon quote at the beginning.

A number of these themes come together in some remarks of Guicciardini, which explain why legal thinking is a natural matrix for a wide range of conceptual advances in applicable reasoning. “Common men find the variety of opinions that exists among lawyers quite reprehensible, without realizing that it proceeds not from any defects in the men but from the nature of the subject. General rules cannot possibly comprehend all particular cases. Often, specific cases cannot be decided on the basis of law, but must rather be dealt with by the opinions of men, which are not always in harmony. We see the same thing happen with doctors, philosophers, commercial arbitrators, and in the discourses of those who govern the state, among whom there is no less variety of judgement than among lawyers.”
Take it from a lawyer: so true.
If there is anything that could be called progress in the religious history of mankind, it resides in the gradual preference for the self over the other as the primary sacrificial victim. It is precisely in this that the Christian religion rests its moral claim.
I believe that Scruton is channeling Rene Girard here.

[Colin] Wilson felt something of the same [transported to a different time & place] while writing his book on Shaw. Writing of Shaw’s breakthrough after years of overwork as a music and theater critic, he [Wilson] had a “sudden feeling of intense joy,” as if his “heart had turned into a balloon” and was “sailing up into the air.” He had become aware, he said, of the “multiplicity of life.” He was back in Edwardian London, as the hero of The Philosopher’s Stone was back in Shakespeare’s day or Proust back in Combray. But he could just as easily be in “Goethe’s Weimar or Mozart’s Salzburg.” The experience, he points out, was not one of empathy; it was, as William James had said of his own mystical experience, perceptual. It was not merely a matter of feeling but of seeing, of perceiving a reality of which we are usually blind, or toward which we are usually indifferent. It was a moment of seeing from the bird’s-eye view rather than from our usual close-up perspective. Or, in other words, it was a moment of non-robotic consciousness.
Such moments are important because they renew us. They connect us to our source of power, meaning, and purpose, and fill us with new vitality. As Wilson came to see, the right brain is in charge of our power supply. It holds the purse strings on our strength.
Wilson knew that it was precisely such moments as these that the Romantics craved: the sense that distant realities are as real as the present moment—more real, in fact—and that life is infinitely interesting.
A sort of deja vu experience?

Tuesday, November 2, 2021

Thoughts: 2 Nov 2021

 

2021 publication


America’s political dysfunction is ultimately a cultural problem whose solution lies at the level of values. So as we come to discover new methods for promoting the growth of values, the collective goal of cultivating cultural evolution on every front of its development will begin to seem increasingly desirable and achievable.
True but not at all easy or guaranteed to take-off.


The past two centuries have been a period of astonishing material and social progress for much of humanity—why should the future be different from the past? As the late Julian Simon, one of the optimists’ standard-bearers, wrote in 1995, “Almost every absolute change, and the absolute component of almost every economic and social change or trend, points in a positive direction, as long as we view the matter over a reasonably long period of time. That is, all aspects of material human welfare are improving in the aggregate.”
But has the neo-Malthusian Paul Ehrlich really been defeated (in his bet with Simon)? Homer-Dixon argues that we may very well face ingenuity gaps that we will not quickly or certainly close. Carbon capture, anyone?

Because American progressivism is, alongside French conservatism, the most schismatic of all faiths, with lifelong resentments governing everyone in turn and new schisms springing up every minute, Rustin had to exert a full court press to bring everyone together.
See the current Democratic Congress as a reference.

A body politic is a non-social community which, by a dialectical process also present in the family, changes into a society.
RGC sees a "society" as a voluntary group composed of consenting individuals, as a social contract theory and business law.

What had taken its place was logic, and logic was the weapon of the totalitarians, who began with a fundamental premise from which everything else followed. (“If you believe A, then it necessarily follows that you must believe B . . . ,” and so on, down to the deaths of millions.)
Channeling Hannah Arendt in the quote.

Karl Popper, described, “The method of science is the method of bold conjectures and ingenious and severe attempts to refute them.”

Aretê implies a respect for the wholeness or oneness of life, and a consequent dislike of specialization. It implies a contempt for efficiency—or rather a much higher idea of efficiency, an efficiency which exists not in one department of life but in life itself.


Friday, October 29, 2021

Thoughts: 29 October 2021

 


[T]he gap between infinite human desires and finite biological resources is at root a moral problem—How and where shall we place a controlling power on human will and appetite?—not something that can be bridged by merely technical or material measures. Hence the solution must be spiritual or religious lest it be nakedly political. 

Many will balk at this bald statement, believing along with the Enlightenment philosophes that religion has no place in the political realm. But in fact we do have a guiding myth of eternal progress through technological prowess and a tacit religion in the form of a secular ideology tantamount to a religion—namely, an absolute faith in the efficacy of instrumental rationality. The problem is that this “faith” lacks a moral core—in other words, anything that would moderate human self-seeking or the insatiable quest for more wealth and power. Its credo is that humankind must use rational means to become the master and possessor of nature and then use that power to achieve personal and national wealth. The overly rationalized and morally unrestrained world in which we find ourselves was created by this quasi-religion and cannot be reformed with more of the same, only by metanoia. That is, by a conversion to a radically different metaphysical stance that restores humanity’s relation to the infinite and provides guidance and practical support for living well on the earth without devouring it.

My initial reaction to reading this? To yell "Amen! Amen! Amen!" We can't heal our political divisions until we have a sense of the common good, a morality, a new sense of being in the world. Truly, a "metanoia," a "conversion"--a change in our heart-mind-- is required if we are to survive, let along thrive.


Morris Berman and Stephen E. Toulmin chronicle the development of the modern mindset: Berman sees revived participation as the necessary response to the disenchantment of the world; Toulmin’s revisionist history suggests that we would have done better to ground modern science on Montaigne rather than Descartes, for this would have lead us earlier to an ecological worldview.
Where Western Civ too a wrong turn.

Although it was rarely clearly articulated or even fully realized by the contrarian artists and intellectuals themselves, the liberal values of modernity were deemed unacceptable because they lacked a strong vision of the transcendent—a form of ultimate meaning that is more important than the needs of the individual self.
Compare to the first Ophuls quote above.

Physical energy is the obvious source of power in biological organisms and human economies, but consciousness, and the agreements that constitute human culture, are not physical or material. While the domain of culture is closely connected to physical things and transactions in the exterior objective world, like consciousness itself, culture is largely an interior phenomenon which can only be fully known by participating in the subjective agreements that give it life.
Also compare to the first Ophuls quote. Our culture needs a metanoia.

If a “community of rational interests and values” existed on the domestic front, then why not in the international community as well?
Because, [Hans] Morgenthau answered, there was no such thing as an international community. Domestic disputes could be resolved—not solved—through discussion and negotiations, or when negotiation failed, by appeals to the sovereignty of the state and the authority of the law. In the relatively benign context of the Western democracies, even those who disagreed with particular outcomes were willing to accept them so that they could live to dispute another day. Only small, knuckle-dragging minorities resorted to violence, and they were vastly outnumbered by the overwhelming law-abiding majority. Consensus was possible because within national borders people agreed to disagree. This was the very meaning of “legitimacy.” “Disputants could not fail to realize that what they had in common was more important than what they were fighting about. They met, indeed, on the common ground of liberal rationality, and their conflicts, since they arose under the conditions and within the framework of the liberal society, could all be settled through the instrumentalities of liberal rationality.”
Query: per this re-statement of Morgenthau's contention, can we say that current American politics, government, and law have lost their legitimacy--at least among Trumpists who are more than ready to overthrow democracy to remain in power?

The experience [of losing a great deal of money in the stock market] left a deep impression on Keynes. Financial markets, he had discovered, were very different from the clean, ordered entities economists presented in textbooks. The fluctuations of market prices did not express the accumulated wisdom of rational actors pursuing their own self-interest but the judgments of flawed men attempting to navigate an uncertain future. Market stability depended not so much on supply and demand finding an equilibrium as it did on political power maintaining order, legitimacy, and confidence.
My conclusion: all economics (or at least macroeconomics) is political economics. "The economy" (a major league abstraction) is a function of groups, individuals, mores, interests, beliefs, culture, institutions, etc., and not a neat system of intersecting curves.

Europe, it appears, offered the perfect degree of environmental difficulty, challenging its inhabitants to rise to greater civilizational heights, even as it still lay in the northern temperate zone, fairly proximate to Africa, the Middle East, the Eurasian steppe, and North America; thus its peoples were able to take full advantage of trade patterns as they burgeoned in the course of centuries of technological advancements in navigation and other spheres.

It comes back, then, to the question of the self-image. Miseries, humiliations, embarrassments, accidents, have the effect of creating partial self-images—self-images which, since they present themselves as complete, are bound to be false.  Consciousness narrows, and my self-image becomes as false and distorted as if I was seeing myself in a trick mirror at a fairground. But a trick mirror at least shows you your whole self, from head to foot; the partial self-image is a pocket-size distorting mirror.

I propose that Michael Pollan’s seven words for healthy eating ["Eat food, not too much, mostly plants"] can be re-stipulated into these six words: 1) protect the liver, 2) feed the gut. This includes animals.