A couple of weeks ago, ABC News showed a two-hour special: “Earth 2100”. I’ve seen or heard very little about it, and I’m amazed. The program told the story of the effects of global climate change through a graphic fictional narrative of a twenty-first-century American family. I’m surprised that I didn’t hear more about it, as it had an almost apocalyptic tone. It reminded me of the special in the mid-1980s about the effects of a nuclear attack on Lawrence, Kansas. That special seemed to have created a lot of comment and concern. Yet, climate change, along with other factors (population, environmental degradation, economic dislocation) presents as significant a threat to our future. However, climate change is coming in slow motion, so it’s different than the threat of a nuclear missile. And although we have had plenty of time to respond, we seem even less well prepared.
Along with the graphic narrative of the fictional American family, the program Earth 2100 also included interviews with experts on these topics, and among them, I picked up the name Thomas Homer Dixon. Dixon is an MIT-trained Canadian political scientist who writes about global issues. I found his website, and I highly recommend a visit to it. http://www.homerdixon.com/. I looked around, and I discovered that he linked to some interviews as podcasts, and I listened to them. Through them, I found a very articulate writer and thinker who has really put his finger on our current situation. I’m now about half-way through his book, The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization (2006). I highly recommend it (don’t have to finish to arrive at this conclusion).
Dixon describes energy as the master trope for a society or civilization. A visit to Rome led him to consider the amount of energy required to construct the coliseum. And he pondered about how a failure of energy supplies (food) to reach Rome could be regarded as the key to its downfall. He also describes society as a complex adaptive system. The concept of a "complex adaptive system" seems the most advanced concept that we have for understanding society, as well as ecologies, financial markets, and a myriad of other structures that are more than merely mechanical or complicated. Something mechanical is predictable; complex adaptive systems are only probable. Complex systems can change by leaps and bounds and not smooth gradients. An automobile engine that responds smoothly when you step on the gas is a mechanical system.
I’ll be writing more about this. As I reflect on it, this lack of societal resilience (shades of Nassim Taleb here) that Dixon describes looms truly frightening and intriguing. I fear for our futures as we seem to live in Kubla Khan’s pleasure dome. I fear for the cracks in the foundation, and fear for our ability to repair them before the edifice crumbles around us.
Along with the graphic narrative of the fictional American family, the program Earth 2100 also included interviews with experts on these topics, and among them, I picked up the name Thomas Homer Dixon. Dixon is an MIT-trained Canadian political scientist who writes about global issues. I found his website, and I highly recommend a visit to it. http://www.homerdixon.com/. I looked around, and I discovered that he linked to some interviews as podcasts, and I listened to them. Through them, I found a very articulate writer and thinker who has really put his finger on our current situation. I’m now about half-way through his book, The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization (2006). I highly recommend it (don’t have to finish to arrive at this conclusion).
Dixon describes energy as the master trope for a society or civilization. A visit to Rome led him to consider the amount of energy required to construct the coliseum. And he pondered about how a failure of energy supplies (food) to reach Rome could be regarded as the key to its downfall. He also describes society as a complex adaptive system. The concept of a "complex adaptive system" seems the most advanced concept that we have for understanding society, as well as ecologies, financial markets, and a myriad of other structures that are more than merely mechanical or complicated. Something mechanical is predictable; complex adaptive systems are only probable. Complex systems can change by leaps and bounds and not smooth gradients. An automobile engine that responds smoothly when you step on the gas is a mechanical system.
I’ll be writing more about this. As I reflect on it, this lack of societal resilience (shades of Nassim Taleb here) that Dixon describes looms truly frightening and intriguing. I fear for our futures as we seem to live in Kubla Khan’s pleasure dome. I fear for the cracks in the foundation, and fear for our ability to repair them before the edifice crumbles around us.
