We study history in order to see more clearly the situation in which we are called on to act. Hence the plane on which, ultimately, all problems arise is the plane of ‘real’ life: that to which they are referred for their solution is history.
But why are so many people nowadays so afraid? What is it about the rising stresses in our world that so scares us? Part of the answer, of course, is that countless people have strong material cause to be afraid— their employment is more precarious, the political power of their social groups is waning, their medical costs are rising (especially in the United States), their social support networks are fraying, and on and on. But another key part of the answer, I believe, lies in how the stresses threaten vital elements of our worldviews. Because our worldviews satisfy some of our most fundamental psychological needs, when they’re seriously threatened, we can get very scared.
“hope that,” which is a passive and timid locution, and “hope to,” which is active and bold— a difference that bears crucially on the issue of our agency as we try to deal with humanity’s problems.
Step one in your search for happiness is to continually work toward having control of your schedule.
No one can see the future, you might think, but as Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner have shown, some people really are “superforecasters”; they have an uncanny ability to predict what’s going to happen. Notably, these particular Jedi tend to agree with statements like these, which might be taken as part of a real-world Jedi Code:
1. Nothing is inevitable. 2. Even major events like World War II or 9/11 could have turned out very differently. 3. People should take into consideration evidence that goes against their beliefs. 4. It is more useful to pay attention to those who disagree with you than to pay attention to those who agree.
Studies of food webs or trade networks, electrical systems and stock markets, find that as they become more densely linked they also become less resilient; networks, after all, propagate and even amplify disturbances. Worse, the more efficient these networks are, the faster they spread those dangers.
Long periods of peace and prosperity often provide the conditions for spreading capture by elites, which can lead to political crisis if followed by an economic downturn or external political shock.
